Introduction

This paper is part of a set of Brief Overview Notes which aim to investigate the impacts and potential responses to the crisis generated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In this note, the Technical Unit for Foresight and Planning investigates the repercussions of the conflict for the European GDP and Portuguese exports. The introduction states that the shock to the Portuguese economy “will come mainly from the escalation of prices of certain products, the general deceleration of GDP in European economies and the combined increase in national debt and interest rates”. The document also provides insights into the impact of the conflict on the disruption of economic activity in countries with greater or lesser involvement, in particular projections for falls in Portuguese exports by sector.

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